[Webinar] Who Are the "Sitting Ducks?" Understanding Extreme Weather Risks to Strengthen Global Resilience

One of the most concerning aspects of climate change is the intensification of extreme weather events. But for many places, this increasing risk remains invisible — especially where no record-breaking event has yet occurred.

We use big data to estimate how the probability of extreme events has shifted over time and estimate the probability that next year will be a record-breaking year in different parts of the world. Results show widespread increases in the risk of record-breaking heat and record-breaking rainfall, including in locations that have not recently experienced an extreme.

For many areas, rare events are now 2-to-3 times more likely in today’s climate than in 1981. In northern Mozambique, for example, there is a more than 5% chance of a record-breaking rainfall event in any given year, with the highest increases in risk during the rainy season. In parts of the US, the chance of breaking a heatwave…